Coming Down To The Wire

In what has become virtually an annual experience, the CFCL title is back up for grabs.  A couple of years ago the Line and DoorMatts duked it out until the last out of the season before the Line won in a tie-breaker.  Last year the Ruffins leapfrogged their way from third with half a week left in the season to win the championship yet again.

This year what looked like a run away romp by the Candy Colored Clowns has turned into a closer-than-it-appears battle between the Clowns and Rebels.  After Week 10, the Clowns lead the league by twelve points and that lead soon ballooned up to 21 points shortly after the trade deadline.

Now we are staring at fifteen days left in the season and the Clowns still hold a strong, but vulnerable eight point lead over the Rebels.  Additionally we see the standings have three other races as well.  The Revenge look to be a strong bet for third, but the Bulls and Line are fighting it out for the Sweet Spot (a.k.a. 4th place).  The Killers are firmly entrenched in sixth while the DoorMatts and Danger keep flipping the seventh and eighth spots.  And last year's champion Ruffins are doggedly fighting off the Beatniks for ninth.

Since it's been said that no one remember who finishes second, let's take a look at the categories that are in play and how they impact the Clowns eight point lead.  First of all, I didn't not include the opportunities the Clowns have to increase their lead, since if that happens nothing is different than it is today, the Clowns in the lead.  What follows is only potential for the Clowns to drop points or Dem Rebels to gain points to see if this is a close pennant race.  So by category, here we go.

Stolen Bases
Dem Rebels trail the Revenge by one stolen base.  (One potential point for Dem Rebels)
The Clowns are safely 16 bags ahead of the Killers (No potential loss in points)

Runs
The Bulls trail the Clowns by seven Runs (One potential point lost for the Clowns)
Dem Rebels are 32 runs away from the Revenge (No potential gain in points)

RBIs
The Clowns safely lead Dem Rebels by 94 RBIs (No potential loss for the Clowns or gain for Dem Rebels).

Total Bases
This one may be a bit of a stretch, but maybe not.
The Clowns lead Dem Rebels by 47 Total Bases.  That breaks down to Dem Rebels needing three more Total Bases than the Clowns each day for the rest of the season to pass the Clowns.  Likely?  Don't know, but possible.  (One potential point lost by the Clowns and one potential point gained by Dem Rebels).

On Base Percentage
Dem Rebels trail the Killers by .0018 (One potential point gained by Dem Rebels)
The Ruffins trail the Clowns by .0009 (One potential point lost by the Clowns)

Offensively there are conceivably six points in play.

Earned Run Average
The Clowns are safely .233 ahead of the Danger (No potential point lost)
Dem Rebels are .037 behind the Revenge and .051 behind the Bulls (Two potential points gained)

WHiP
Danger is securely .0381 ahead of Dem Rebels (No potential point gained)
Danger is .0242 behind the Clowns (One potential point lost)

Quality Starts
The Bulls are three QS behind the Clowns (One potential point lost)
Dem Rebels are nine QS behind the Killers (No potential point gained)

Holds/Saves
The Clowns are a secure seven H/S ahead of the Line (No potential point lost)
Dem Rebels are a distant twelve H/S behind the Bulls (No potential point gained)

K/BB
The Line is a mere .002 behind the Clowns (One potential point lost)
Dem Rebels trail the DoorMatts by .106 (One potential point gained)

Pitching has six points in play.  In total there are twelve points available to move with an eight point lead.  Some are more possible than others, but the potential for another last day show down is still there with fifteen days remaining.  If nothing else, this yet again points out to Bud Dumber of Major League Baseball that you don't need to create stupid ass rules and monkey with the system to have drama at the end of the season.

Good luck to all for an exciting finish to 2012!!