Coming Down To The Wire

In what has become virtually an annual experience, the CFCL title is back up for grabs.  A couple of years ago the Line and DoorMatts duked it out until the last out of the season before the Line won in a tie-breaker.  Last year the Ruffins leapfrogged their way from third with half a week left in the season to win the championship yet again.

This year what looked like a run away romp by the Candy Colored Clowns has turned into a closer-than-it-appears battle between the Clowns and Rebels.  After Week 10, the Clowns lead the league by twelve points and that lead soon ballooned up to 21 points shortly after the trade deadline.

Now we are staring at fifteen days left in the season and the Clowns still hold a strong, but vulnerable eight point lead over the Rebels.  Additionally we see the standings have three other races as well.  The Revenge look to be a strong bet for third, but the Bulls and Line are fighting it out for the Sweet Spot (a.k.a. 4th place).  The Killers are firmly entrenched in sixth while the DoorMatts and Danger keep flipping the seventh and eighth spots.  And last year's champion Ruffins are doggedly fighting off the Beatniks for ninth.

Since it's been said that no one remember who finishes second, let's take a look at the categories that are in play and how they impact the Clowns eight point lead.  First of all, I didn't not include the opportunities the Clowns have to increase their lead, since if that happens nothing is different than it is today, the Clowns in the lead.  What follows is only potential for the Clowns to drop points or Dem Rebels to gain points to see if this is a close pennant race.  So by category, here we go.

Stolen Bases
Dem Rebels trail the Revenge by one stolen base.  (One potential point for Dem Rebels)
The Clowns are safely 16 bags ahead of the Killers (No potential loss in points)

Runs
The Bulls trail the Clowns by seven Runs (One potential point lost for the Clowns)
Dem Rebels are 32 runs away from the Revenge (No potential gain in points)

RBIs
The Clowns safely lead Dem Rebels by 94 RBIs (No potential loss for the Clowns or gain for Dem Rebels).

Total Bases
This one may be a bit of a stretch, but maybe not.
The Clowns lead Dem Rebels by 47 Total Bases.  That breaks down to Dem Rebels needing three more Total Bases than the Clowns each day for the rest of the season to pass the Clowns.  Likely?  Don't know, but possible.  (One potential point lost by the Clowns and one potential point gained by Dem Rebels).

On Base Percentage
Dem Rebels trail the Killers by .0018 (One potential point gained by Dem Rebels)
The Ruffins trail the Clowns by .0009 (One potential point lost by the Clowns)

Offensively there are conceivably six points in play.

Earned Run Average
The Clowns are safely .233 ahead of the Danger (No potential point lost)
Dem Rebels are .037 behind the Revenge and .051 behind the Bulls (Two potential points gained)

WHiP
Danger is securely .0381 ahead of Dem Rebels (No potential point gained)
Danger is .0242 behind the Clowns (One potential point lost)

Quality Starts
The Bulls are three QS behind the Clowns (One potential point lost)
Dem Rebels are nine QS behind the Killers (No potential point gained)

Holds/Saves
The Clowns are a secure seven H/S ahead of the Line (No potential point lost)
Dem Rebels are a distant twelve H/S behind the Bulls (No potential point gained)

K/BB
The Line is a mere .002 behind the Clowns (One potential point lost)
Dem Rebels trail the DoorMatts by .106 (One potential point gained)

Pitching has six points in play.  In total there are twelve points available to move with an eight point lead.  Some are more possible than others, but the potential for another last day show down is still there with fifteen days remaining.  If nothing else, this yet again points out to Bud Dumber of Major League Baseball that you don't need to create stupid ass rules and monkey with the system to have drama at the end of the season.

Good luck to all for an exciting finish to 2012!!

Ruffins Repeat in 2011

Congratulations to the 2011 CFCL Champion - David's Ruffins! In an amazing final week of the season the Ruffins came out of seemingly no where to capture their second consecutive title and fourth overall.

Kenndoza Line gave a valiant effort but came up just short. And the Revenge, oh the Revenge. They captured the final money slot after leading for most of the year. Interestingly the Revenge fell behind the Line, into third, by losing a point to the Bulls in ERA on the final night. The Revenge didn't pitch on Wednesday. Stephen Strasbourg of the Bulls did and posted six scoreless innings, which was enough to push the Bulls past the Revenge in ERA and drop the Revenge to third.

As recently as September 22nd (SIX DAYS AGO, FOLKS!) the top four in the standings looked like this:

Revenge 76

Kenndoza Line 74.5

DoorMatts 71

Ruffins 67

Somehow, some way the Ruffins made up nine points in six days. We have had some amazing finishes in CFCL history, but this ranks right up there as the best.

Securing the Sweet Spot (trademark - Candy Colored Clowns) are the DoorMatts. They will have the use of the full compliment of the Home Team Discount budget. Here's a look at the HTD.

DoorMatts .06

Garrett Jones

Dan Uggla

Shane Victorino

Luke Gregerson

Josh Johnson

Carlos Marmol

Mo's Red Hots .05

Ryan Braun

Stephen Drew

Bronson Arroyo

Dem Rebels .04

Brian Wilson

Graging Bulls

No eligible players

Candy Colored Clowns

No eligible players

Twin Killers .02

Sergie Romo

Stranger Danger

No eligible players

Some other housekeeping notes:

- The 2011 Final Roster has been posted to the link on the right. Shortly I will be cleaning the roster of all 11(!) and S contracts, so make sure you download the end of year version soon.

- I have yet to hear any feedback on availability for the CFCL Banquet. Usually we like to make sure that the CFCL Champion is available, but I'm sure Dave won't be flying in to accept his trophy and money. So we'll revert to a majority rules decision.

- I will work on putting together the CFCL Awards Ballot as quickly as possible. If you have someone on your team that you feel deserves consideration for a specific award, please e-mail me. Keep in mind - THIS IS NOT THE ALL-STAR GAME! A player from each team does not need to be represented in each category. So whomever you submit for consideration, please make sure they are worthy of the award.

Once again, congratulations to the Ruffins! Looks like they are focused on surpassing the Copperfields for most championships in the shortest time possible.

And Down The Stretch They Come!

Heading into the final week of August, the Kenndoza Line holds a commanding 12 point lead over the second place DoorMatts. Or is it commanding? Let's take a look.

Looking at the various categories and the points in play we find:

On Base Percentage:
Line is .002 ahead of Copperfields - potential 1 point loss
DoorMatts .0076 behind Bulls - no point gain

Runs:
Line 19 ahead of Bulls - no point loss
DoorMatts 2 behind Copperfields - potential one point gain

RBI:
Line 1 behind Copperfields - potential one point gain
DoorMatts 62 behind Line - no point gain

Stolen Bases:
Line 14 ahead of Revenge - no point loss
DoorMatts 4 behind Revenge - potential one point gain

Total Bases:
Line 13 behind Clowns - potential one point gain
DoorMatts 24 behind Copperfields - no point gain

So far, based on offense the Line could drop one point closer to the Matts (and have an 11 point lead). But let's look at the pitching categories. Now here's where it gets fun.

ERA:
Line .04 ahead of DoorMatts - potential one point loss
DoorMatts .04 behind Line - potential one point gain

Hold/Save:
Line 2 ahead of DoorMatts - potential one point loss
DoorMatts 2 behind Line - potential one point gain

K/BB:
Line .251 ahead of Copperfields - no point loss
DoorMatts .085 behind Copperfields - potential one point gain

Quality Starts:
Line 2 ahead of Revenge - potential one point loss
DoorMatts 16 ahead of Line - no point gain

WHIP:
Line .04 ahead of DoorMatts - potential one point loss
DoorMatts .04 behind Line - potential one point gain

With the above assumptions the total point swing is Line losing 3 points and DoorMatts gaining 6 points. That still leaves the Line with the title by three points.

Of course Gene Mauch, Leo Durocher, Willie Randolph/Jerry Manuel could talk volumes of insurmountable leads.

The rest of the league, aside from the Hots and MooreBetter, is jockeying for position to finish in or out of the money or closer to the sweet spot for maximum HTD.

Enjoy the ride.