Heading into the final week of August, the Kenndoza Line holds a commanding 12 point lead over the second place DoorMatts. Or is it commanding? Let's take a look.
Looking at the various categories and the points in play we find:
On Base Percentage:
Line is .002 ahead of Copperfields - potential 1 point loss
DoorMatts .0076 behind Bulls - no point gain
Runs:
Line 19 ahead of Bulls - no point loss
DoorMatts 2 behind Copperfields - potential one point gain
RBI:
Line 1 behind Copperfields - potential one point gain
DoorMatts 62 behind Line - no point gain
Stolen Bases:
Line 14 ahead of Revenge - no point loss
DoorMatts 4 behind Revenge - potential one point gain
Total Bases:
Line 13 behind Clowns - potential one point gain
DoorMatts 24 behind Copperfields - no point gain
So far, based on offense the Line could drop one point closer to the Matts (and have an 11 point lead). But let's look at the pitching categories. Now here's where it gets fun.
ERA:
Line .04 ahead of DoorMatts - potential one point loss
DoorMatts .04 behind Line - potential one point gain
Hold/Save:
Line 2 ahead of DoorMatts - potential one point loss
DoorMatts 2 behind Line - potential one point gain
K/BB:
Line .251 ahead of Copperfields - no point loss
DoorMatts .085 behind Copperfields - potential one point gain
Quality Starts:
Line 2 ahead of Revenge - potential one point loss
DoorMatts 16 ahead of Line - no point gain
WHIP:
Line .04 ahead of DoorMatts - potential one point loss
DoorMatts .04 behind Line - potential one point gain
With the above assumptions the total point swing is Line losing 3 points and DoorMatts gaining 6 points. That still leaves the Line with the title by three points.
Of course Gene Mauch, Leo Durocher, Willie Randolph/Jerry Manuel could talk volumes of insurmountable leads.
The rest of the league, aside from the Hots and MooreBetter, is jockeying for position to finish in or out of the money or closer to the sweet spot for maximum HTD.
Enjoy the ride.
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5 comments:
Good analysis. Believe me, I've been looking at these numbers every day, and it's even closer than you say. You say I don't have a potential loss in runs, but I most certainly do - 19 runs can be made up easily. Total bases could also end up being volatile. And the DoorMatts aren't the only team that is going to catch me in H+S.
I run my projections all the time, in one scenario I lost be half a point to the DoorMatts. I certainly don't think this one is over.
Good point on your look at things, Kenn. Maybe I was assuming that the 19 run lead was safe because I was thinking of the Rebels run production - effectively three a week if someone hits a homerun.
Not to mention that the Coppers aren't exactly out of it either. I think either of them (but not both) can get to 85 if all goes right.
On a day where only three teams are playing, the Rebels already have their weekly quota of three runs. Of course, two came on Ryan Howard dingers.
Yep, I'm good through Sunday now. So I don't have to bother checking the Live Scoring any more and can focus my attention on the kids going back to school this week. Thanks for the freedom Ryan Howard!
So Kenn, do any of your projections have me winning? :)
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